Beerschot VA 2–1 Lommel United: Result & Stats

Beerschot VA

FT

2 – 1

Lommel United

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion De Visputten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beerschot VA55%

×Draw23%

Lommel United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beerschot VAExpected goals in this matchLommel United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.10

Beerschot VA

1.85

Lommel United

1.10

Beerschot VA creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.40

0.80

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Beerschot VA

1.40

Lommel United

1.40

allows per match

Beerschot VA

0.80

Lommel United

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Lommel United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Lommel United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw

78%

Beerschot VA or Lommel United

77%

Draw or Lommel United

45%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

31%

Lommel United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

84%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

55%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

28%

Lommel United 1+ goals

67%

Lommel United 2+ goals

30%

Lommel United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

71%

Lommel United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Lommel United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.40 + Lommel United defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lommel United attack 1.40 + Beerschot VA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Beerschot VA scores more

55%

level

23%

Lommel United scores more

22%

Beerschot VA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff