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Beerschot VA vs Liège — League #145 2026

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Liège
Liège
E. Brahic 90'
R. van La Parra 78'
A. Vula 39'
11/28/2025League #145League #145 · Round 15Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beerschot VA59%
×Draw24%
Liège16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.63
Liège
0.71

Beerschot VA creates 130% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
2.00
Liège
0.75

allows per match

Beerschot VA
0.67
Liège
1.25

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
Liège+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Liège →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
84%
Beerschot VA or Liège
76%
Draw or Liège
41%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
33%
Liège wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
80%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
48%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
22%
Liège 1+ goals
51%
Liège 2+ goals
16%
Liège 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
79%
Liège (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Liège away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 2.00 + Liège defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Liège attack 0.75 + Beerschot VA defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
59%
level
24%
Liège scores more
16%

Beerschot VA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. Mbe SohBeerschot VABeerschot VA · D
8.3

Match Events

39'
A. Vula↳ L. Van Eenoo
46'
F. Da Silva← K. Shkurti
46'
A. Lefebvre← B. Bruggeman
51'
Genki Haraguchi
56'
D. Sarmiento← A. De Sart
63'
D. Wright-Phillips← S. Guendouz
72'
A. Van Himbeeck← G. Claes
72'
A. Labie← D. Gyamfi
78'
R. van La Parra
80'
F. Soelle← P. Ngawa
82'
Nick Shinton
85'
R. Sanusi← G. Haraguchi
85'
E. Brahic← R. van La Parra
90'
E. Brahic↳ D. Wright-Phillips

Possession

61%Beerschot

Shots

24Beerschot

Pass accuracy

54%Beerschot

Statistics

BeerschotLiège
Overview
61%Possession39%
24Total Shots12
1.98Expected Goals (xG)0.41
9Corners5
8Fouls14
Shots
24Total Shots12
8On Target3
2Off Target6
14Blocked3
16Inside Box5
8Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
570Total Passes355
498Accurate Passes268
87%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls14
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Beerschot VA vs Liège

Beerschot VA beat Liège 3-0 in League #145 on November 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Vula (39'), R. van La Parra (78'), E. Brahic (90').

Beerschot VA controlled possession (61%) and registered 24 shots to 12.

The match was played at Olympisch Stadion in Antwerp.