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Bedford Town vs Wealdstone — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bedford Town
Bedford Town
FT
1 – 3
Wealdstone
Wealdstone
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The New Eyrie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bedford Town26%
×Draw24%
Wealdstone49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bedford Town
1.17
Wealdstone
1.69

Wealdstone creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bedford Town
1.00
Wealdstone
1.67

allows per match

Bedford Town
1.71
Wealdstone
1.33

finishing

Bedford Town+0.00on par
Wealdstone+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bedford Town ↓

Wealdstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bedford Town or draw
51%
Bedford Town or Wealdstone
76%
Draw or Wealdstone
74%

Winning margin

Bedford Town wins by 2+
11%
Wealdstone wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bedford Town 1+ goals
69%
Bedford Town 2+ goals
33%
Bedford Town 3+ goals
11%
Wealdstone 1+ goals
82%
Wealdstone 2+ goals
50%
Wealdstone 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bedford Town (draw refunded)
35%
Wealdstone (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bedford Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Wealdstone away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bedford Town attack 1.00 + Wealdstone defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Wealdstone attack 1.67 + Bedford Town defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bedford Town scores more
26%
level
24%
Wealdstone scores more
49%

Wealdstone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wealdstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bedford Town vs Wealdstone

Wealdstone beat Bedford Town 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at The New Eyrie in Cardington, Bedfordshire.