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Bedford Town vs Biggleswade — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bedford Town
Bedford Town
CANC
14:00
Biggleswade
Biggleswade
7/2/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bedford Town29%
×Draw30%
Biggleswade42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bedford Town
0.92
Biggleswade
1.17

Biggleswade creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bedford Town
0.83
Biggleswade
0.33

allows per match

Bedford Town
2.00
Biggleswade
1.00

finishing

Bedford Town+0.00on par
Biggleswade+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bedford Town ↓

Biggleswade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bedford Town or draw
58%
Bedford Town or Biggleswade
70%
Draw or Biggleswade
71%

Winning margin

Bedford Town wins by 2+
10%
Biggleswade wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bedford Town 1+ goals
60%
Bedford Town 2+ goals
23%
Bedford Town 3+ goals
7%
Biggleswade 1+ goals
69%
Biggleswade 2+ goals
33%
Biggleswade 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bedford Town (draw refunded)
41%
Biggleswade (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bedford Town at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Biggleswade away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bedford Town attack 0.83 + Biggleswade defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Biggleswade attack 0.33 + Bedford Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bedford Town scores more
29%
level
30%
Biggleswade scores more
42%

Biggleswade at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Biggleswade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bedford Town host Biggleswade

July 2, 2022: Bedford Town take on Biggleswade in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.