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Bechem United vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Medeama
Medeama
E. Abban 43'
D. Yeboah 4'
10/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bechem United52%
×Draw30%
Medeama19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.27
Medeama
0.64

Bechem United creates 98% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.35
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Bechem United
0.43
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
81%
Bechem United or Medeama
70%
Draw or Medeama
48%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
24%
Medeama wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
72%
Bechem United 2+ goals
36%
Bechem United 3+ goals
14%
Medeama 1+ goals
47%
Medeama 2+ goals
14%
Medeama 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
73%
Medeama (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.35 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Medeama attack 0.85 + Bechem United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bechem United scores more
52%
level
30%
Medeama scores more
19%

Bechem United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
D. Yeboah
43'
E. Abban
46'
B. Tetteh← D. Boison
46'
D. Fordjour← K. Braye
63'
R. Dwumah← R. Dwumah
67'
A. Okrah← A. Salifu
70'
F. Kumi← F. Kumi
78'
E. Annor← E. Annor
78'
M. Abubakar← M. Abubakar
87'
F. Sakitey← F. Sakitey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bechem United vs Medeama

Bechem United beat Medeama 2-0 in Premier League on October 13, 2024.

Goals: D. Yeboah (4'), E. Abban (43').

The match was played at Bechem Park in Bechem.