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Bechem United vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
9/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bechem United54%
×Draw29%
Dreams17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.31
Dreams
0.59

Bechem United creates 122% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.36
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Bechem United
0.41
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
83%
Bechem United or Dreams
71%
Draw or Dreams
46%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
26%
Dreams wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
73%
Bechem United 2+ goals
38%
Bechem United 3+ goals
14%
Dreams 1+ goals
45%
Dreams 2+ goals
12%
Dreams 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
76%
Dreams (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dreams attack 0.77 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bechem United scores more
54%
level
29%
Dreams scores more
17%

Bechem United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bechem United vs Dreams

Bechem United beat Dreams 1-0 in Premier League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Bechem Park in Bechem.