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Bechem United vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
3/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Bechem park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Bechem United55%
×Draw29%
Aduana Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.31
Aduana Stars
0.58

Bechem United creates 126% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.36
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Bechem United
0.41
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
84%
Bechem United or Aduana Stars
71%
Draw or Aduana Stars
45%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
26%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
73%
Bechem United 2+ goals
38%
Bechem United 3+ goals
14%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
44%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
12%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
77%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bechem United scores more
55%
level
29%
Aduana Stars scores more
16%

Bechem United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bechem United 2–1 Aduana Stars

Bechem United beat Aduana Stars 2-1 in Premier League on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Bechem park in Bechem.