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Becerril Campos vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
9/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Becerril Campos37%
×Draw29%
Palencia CF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.16
Palencia CF
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 84 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
66%
Becerril Campos or Palencia CF
71%
Draw or Palencia CF
63%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
16%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
69%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
32%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
11%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
66%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
30%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
52%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
37%
level
29%
Palencia CF scores more
34%

Becerril Campos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Becerril Campos 1 – 2 Palencia CF

Palencia CF beat Becerril Campos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.