Becerril Campos 1–0 Laguna de Duero: Result & Stats

Becerril Campos

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Laguna de Duero

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Becerril Campos54%

×Draw24%

Laguna de Duero22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Becerril CamposExpected goals in this matchLaguna de Duero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.03

Becerril Campos

1.75

Laguna de Duero

1.03

Becerril Campos creates 70% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 35 away

1.11

creates per match

0.80

1.26

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Becerril Campos

1.11

Laguna de Duero

0.80

allows per match

Becerril Campos

1.26

Laguna de Duero

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Laguna de Duero →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw

78%

Becerril Campos or Laguna de Duero

76%

Draw or Laguna de Duero

46%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

30%

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

83%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

52%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

25%

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

64%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

28%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

71%

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Becerril Campos scores more

54%

level

24%

Laguna de Duero scores more

22%

Becerril Campos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 1–0 Laguna de Duero

Becerril Campos beat Laguna de Duero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.

Becerril Campos vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 1–0 Laguna de Duero