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Becerril Campos vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
CANC
00:00
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Becerril Campos47%
×Draw27%
La Bañeza26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.40
La Bañeza
0.97

Becerril Campos creates 44% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 31 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
74%
Becerril Campos or La Bañeza
73%
Draw or La Bañeza
53%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
23%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
75%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
41%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
17%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
62%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
25%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
64%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
47%
level
27%
La Bañeza scores more
26%

Becerril Campos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Becerril Campos vs La Bañeza — Match Preview

Becerril Campos face La Bañeza on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Becerril Campos host La Bañeza at Estadio Mariano Haro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.