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Becerril Campos vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Becerril Campos33%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.10
Cultural Leonesa II
1.21

Cultural Leonesa II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 110 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
61%
Becerril Campos or Cultural Leonesa II
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
67%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
13%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
67%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
30%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
10%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
70%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
34%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
46%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
33%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
39%

Cultural Leonesa II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 2–1 Cultural Leonesa II

Becerril Campos beat Cultural Leonesa II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.