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Becerril Campos vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Becerril Campos29%
×Draw28%
Cristo Atlético43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.03
Cristo Atlético
1.31

Cristo Atlético creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 80 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
57%
Becerril Campos or Cristo Atlético
72%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
71%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
11%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
64%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
28%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
9%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
73%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
38%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
41%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
29%
level
28%
Cristo Atlético scores more
43%

Cristo Atlético at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 2–1 Cristo Atlético

Becerril Campos beat Cristo Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.