Becerril Campos 2–1 Ciudad Rodrigo: Result & Stats

Becerril Campos

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ciudad Rodrigo

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Becerril Campos50%

×Draw25%

Ciudad Rodrigo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Becerril CamposExpected goals in this matchCiudad Rodrigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Becerril Campos

1.56

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.00

Becerril Campos creates 56% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 34 away

1.11

creates per match

0.74

1.26

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Becerril Campos

1.11

Ciudad Rodrigo

0.74

allows per match

Becerril Campos

1.26

Ciudad Rodrigo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw

76%

Becerril Campos or Ciudad Rodrigo

75%

Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo

50%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

26%

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

79%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

46%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

21%

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals

63%

Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals

26%

Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

67%

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Becerril Campos scores more

50%

level

25%

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more

24%

Becerril Campos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Becerril Campos vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Becerril Campos beat Ciudad Rodrigo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.

Becerril Campos vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Becerril Campos vs Ciudad Rodrigo