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Becerril Campos vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Becerril Campos33%
×Draw28%
Atlético Tordesillas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.09
Atlético Tordesillas
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 110 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
62%
Becerril Campos or Atlético Tordesillas
72%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
67%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
66%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
30%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
47%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
33%
level
28%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
38%

Atlético Tordesillas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 0–2 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Becerril Campos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.