Beasain 1–1 San Ignacio: Result & Stats

Beasain

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

San Ignacio

11/4/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Beasain47%

×Draw27%

San Ignacio26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeasainExpected goals in this matchSan Ignacio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.97

Beasain

1.41

San Ignacio

0.97

Beasain creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 112 away

1.65

creates per match

0.99

0.95

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Beasain

1.65

San Ignacio

0.99

allows per match

Beasain

0.95

San Ignacio

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

San Ignacio →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beasain or draw

74%

Beasain or San Ignacio

73%

Draw or San Ignacio

53%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+

23%

San Ignacio wins by 2+

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals

76%

Beasain 2+ goals

41%

Beasain 3+ goals

17%

San Ignacio 1+ goals

62%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

25%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)

65%

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beasain scores more

47%

level

27%

San Ignacio scores more

26%

Beasain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff