Beasain 2–2 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Beasain

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Sociedad III

3/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Beasain44%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad III31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeasainExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.30

Beasain

1.58

Real Sociedad III

1.30

Beasain creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

1.65

creates per match

1.66

0.95

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Beasain

1.65

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Beasain

0.95

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Beasain or draw

69%

Beasain or Real Sociedad III

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

56%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+

22%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals

79%

Beasain 2+ goals

47%

Beasain 3+ goals

21%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

73%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

37%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)

58%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beasain scores more

44%

level

25%

Real Sociedad III scores more

31%

Beasain at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff