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Beasain vs Portugalete — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Beasain
Beasain
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Portugalete
Portugalete
6/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beasain35%
×Draw29%
Portugalete35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beasain
1.10
Portugalete
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beasain
1.40
Portugalete
1.60

allows per match

Beasain
0.60
Portugalete
0.80

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par
Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Portugalete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Beasain or draw
65%
Beasain or Portugalete
71%
Draw or Portugalete
65%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+
14%
Portugalete wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals
67%
Beasain 2+ goals
30%
Beasain 3+ goals
10%
Portugalete 1+ goals
67%
Portugalete 2+ goals
30%
Portugalete 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)
50%
Portugalete (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.40 + Portugalete defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Portugalete attack 1.60 + Beasain defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Beasain scores more
35%
level
29%
Portugalete scores more
35%

Beasain at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beasain vs Portugalete

Portugalete beat Beasain 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estado Municipal de Loinaz in Beasain.