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Beasain vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beasain
Beasain
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
1/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Beasain51%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Alavés III23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beasain
1.53
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

Beasain creates 63% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

creates per match

Beasain
1.65
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Beasain
0.95
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beasain or draw
77%
Beasain or Deportivo Alavés III
74%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
49%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals
78%
Beasain 2+ goals
45%
Beasain 3+ goals
20%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beasain scores more
51%
level
26%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
23%

Beasain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beasain 4 – 1 Deportivo Alavés III

Beasain beat Deportivo Alavés III 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estado Municipal de Loinaz in Beasain.