Beasain 3–1 Beti Gazte: Result & Stats

Beasain

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Beti Gazte

3/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beasain67%

×Draw19%

Beti Gazte14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeasainExpected goals in this matchBeti Gazte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.90

Beasain

2.20

Beti Gazte

0.90

Beasain creates 144% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

1.65

creates per match

0.84

0.95

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Beasain

1.65

Beti Gazte

0.84

allows per match

Beasain

0.95

Beti Gazte

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par

Beti Gazte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Beti Gazte →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beasain or draw

86%

Beasain or Beti Gazte

81%

Draw or Beti Gazte

33%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+

43%

Beti Gazte wins by 2+

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals

89%

Beasain 2+ goals

64%

Beasain 3+ goals

37%

Beti Gazte 1+ goals

59%

Beti Gazte 2+ goals

23%

Beti Gazte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)

82%

Beti Gazte (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Beti Gazte away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Beti Gazte defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.20

Beti Gazte attack 0.84 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Beasain scores more

67%

level

19%

Beti Gazte scores more

14%

Beasain at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff