Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beasain vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beasain
Beasain
CANC
22:00
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 36Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Beasain66%
×Draw21%
Ariznabarra13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beasain
1.95
Ariznabarra
0.73

Beasain creates 167% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 29 away

creates per match

Beasain
1.65
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

Beasain
0.95
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beasain or draw
87%
Beasain or Ariznabarra
79%
Draw or Ariznabarra
34%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+
41%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals
86%
Beasain 2+ goals
58%
Beasain 3+ goals
31%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
52%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
17%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)
83%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Beasain scores more
66%
level
21%
Ariznabarra scores more
13%

Beasain at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beasain face Ariznabarra (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Beasain hosting Ariznabarra. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Beasain host Ariznabarra at Estado Municipal de Loinaz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.