Beasain 2–0 Añorga: Result & Stats

Beasain

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Añorga

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Beasain66%

×Draw21%

Añorga13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeasainExpected goals in this matchAñorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.71

Beasain

1.92

Añorga

0.71

Beasain creates 170% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 33 away

1.65

creates per match

0.48

0.95

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Beasain

1.65

Añorga

0.48

allows per match

Beasain

0.95

Añorga

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par

Añorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Añorga →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beasain or draw

87%

Beasain or Añorga

79%

Draw or Añorga

34%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+

40%

Añorga wins by 2+

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals

85%

Beasain 2+ goals

57%

Beasain 3+ goals

30%

Añorga 1+ goals

51%

Añorga 2+ goals

16%

Añorga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)

83%

Añorga (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Añorga away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Añorga defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.92

Añorga attack 0.48 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Beasain scores more

66%

level

21%

Añorga scores more

13%

Beasain at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff