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Beasain vs Amurrio Club — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beasain
Beasain
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
1/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Beasain51%
×Draw26%
Amurrio Club23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beasain
1.48
Amurrio Club
0.90

Beasain creates 64% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Beasain
1.65
Amurrio Club
0.84

allows per match

Beasain
0.95
Amurrio Club
1.32

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par
Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Amurrio Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Beasain or draw
77%
Beasain or Amurrio Club
74%
Draw or Amurrio Club
49%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+
26%
Amurrio Club wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals
77%
Beasain 2+ goals
43%
Beasain 3+ goals
19%
Amurrio Club 1+ goals
59%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
23%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)
69%
Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Amurrio Club away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Amurrio Club defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Amurrio Club attack 0.84 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beasain scores more
51%
level
26%
Amurrio Club scores more
23%

Beasain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beasain vs Amurrio Club

Beasain beat Amurrio Club 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estado Municipal de Loinaz in Beasain.