BEA Mountain 5–2 Shaita: Result & Stats

BEA Mountain

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shaita

4/20/2025

LFA First Division · Round 26Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BEA Mountain52%

×Draw22%

Shaita25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BEA MountainExpected goals in this matchShaita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.26

BEA Mountain

1.91

Shaita

1.26

BEA Mountain creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 13 away

1.74

creates per match

1.62

0.89

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

BEA Mountain

1.74

Shaita

1.62

allows per match

BEA Mountain

0.89

Shaita

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Shaita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw

75%

BEA Mountain or Shaita

78%

Draw or Shaita

48%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

30%

Shaita wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

85%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

57%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

30%

Shaita 1+ goals

72%

Shaita 2+ goals

36%

Shaita 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

68%

Shaita (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.91

Shaita attack 1.62 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BEA Mountain scores more

52%

level

22%

Shaita scores more

25%

BEA Mountain at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff