Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BEA Mountain vs NPA Anchors — LFA First Division 2020

BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NPA Anchors
NPA Anchors
9/24/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 3Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

BEA Mountain63%
×Draw21%
NPA Anchors16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BEA Mountain
1.98
NPA Anchors
0.86

BEA Mountain creates 130% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 24 away

creates per match

BEA Mountain
1.74
NPA Anchors
0.83

allows per match

BEA Mountain
0.89
NPA Anchors
2.21

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par
NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

NPA Anchors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw
84%
BEA Mountain or NPA Anchors
79%
Draw or NPA Anchors
37%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+
39%
NPA Anchors wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals
86%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
59%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
31%
NPA Anchors 1+ goals
58%
NPA Anchors 2+ goals
21%
NPA Anchors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
80%
NPA Anchors (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

BEA Mountain scores more
63%
level
21%
NPA Anchors scores more
16%

BEA Mountain at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: BEA Mountain 1–0 NPA Anchors

BEA Mountain beat NPA Anchors 1-0 in LFA First Division on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.