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BEA Mountain vs Nimba FC — LFA First Division 2020

BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
CANC
15:30
Nimba FC
Nimba FC
12/6/2020LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6Kinjor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

BEA Mountain61%
×Draw21%
Nimba FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BEA Mountain
2.02
Nimba FC
1.00

BEA Mountain creates 102% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 10 away

creates per match

BEA Mountain
1.74
Nimba FC
1.10

allows per match

BEA Mountain
0.89
Nimba FC
2.30

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par
Nimba FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Nimba FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw
82%
BEA Mountain or Nimba FC
79%
Draw or Nimba FC
39%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+
37%
Nimba FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals
87%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
60%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
33%
Nimba FC 1+ goals
63%
Nimba FC 2+ goals
26%
Nimba FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
77%
Nimba FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Nimba FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Nimba FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.02

Nimba FC attack 1.10 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

BEA Mountain scores more
61%
level
21%
Nimba FC scores more
18%

BEA Mountain at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BEA Mountain vs Nimba FC — Match Preview

BEA Mountain face Nimba FC on December 6, 2020 in this LFA First Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

BEA Mountain host Nimba FC at Kinjor Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.