BEA Mountain 1–3 Global Pharma: Result & Stats

BEA Mountain

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Global Pharma

1/17/2024

LFA First Division · Round 14TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

BEA Mountain56%

×Draw24%

Global Pharma20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BEA MountainExpected goals in this matchGlobal Pharma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.91

BEA Mountain

1.69

Global Pharma

0.91

BEA Mountain creates 86% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 26 away

1.74

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

BEA Mountain

1.74

Global Pharma

0.92

allows per match

BEA Mountain

0.89

Global Pharma

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Global Pharma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw

80%

BEA Mountain or Global Pharma

76%

Draw or Global Pharma

44%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

31%

Global Pharma wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

82%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

50%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

24%

Global Pharma 1+ goals

60%

Global Pharma 2+ goals

23%

Global Pharma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

73%

Global Pharma (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

BEA Mountain scores more

56%

level

24%

Global Pharma scores more

20%

BEA Mountain at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff