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BEA Mountain vs Freeport — LFA First Division 2020

BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
FT
2 – 1
Freeport
Freeport
4/17/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 22Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

BEA Mountain51%
×Draw24%
Freeport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BEA Mountain
1.68
Freeport
1.10

BEA Mountain creates 53% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

creates per match

BEA Mountain
1.74
Freeport
1.31

allows per match

BEA Mountain
0.89
Freeport
1.61

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par
Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Freeport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw
75%
BEA Mountain or Freeport
76%
Draw or Freeport
49%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+
27%
Freeport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals
81%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
50%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
24%
Freeport 1+ goals
67%
Freeport 2+ goals
30%
Freeport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
67%
Freeport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Freeport attack 1.31 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

BEA Mountain scores more
51%
level
24%
Freeport scores more
25%

BEA Mountain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BEA Mountain vs Freeport

BEA Mountain beat Freeport 2-1 in LFA First Division on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.