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Be1 NFA vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Šilas
Šilas
11/12/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Be1 NFA46%
×Draw24%
Šilas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
1.69
Šilas
1.34

Be1 NFA creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 41 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
1.71
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Be1 NFA
1.06
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
69%
Be1 NFA or Šilas
76%
Draw or Šilas
54%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
24%
Šilas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
82%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
50%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
24%
Šilas 1+ goals
74%
Šilas 2+ goals
39%
Šilas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
60%
Šilas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Šilas attack 1.63 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
46%
level
24%
Šilas scores more
31%

Be1 NFA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Be1 NFA 1 – 1 Šilas

Be1 NFA and Šilas drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.