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Be1 NFA vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 0
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiaiadvanced
6/15/2021CupCup · Round of 16Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Be1 NFA4%
×Draw10%
Džiugas Telšiai85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
0.50
Džiugas Telšiai
2.91

Džiugas Telšiai creates 482% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
0.00
Džiugas Telšiai
2.81

allows per match

Be1 NFA
3.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–110%
0–214%
0–314%
0–410%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
15%
Be1 NFA or Džiugas Telšiai
90%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
96%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
1%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
39%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
9%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
1%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
94%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
78%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
5%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 0.00 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Be1 NFA defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
4%
level
10%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
85%

Džiugas Telšiai at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Be1 NFA 0–6 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Be1 NFA 6-0 in Cup on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.