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Be'sat Kermanshah vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1/3/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah42%
×Draw32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be'sat Kermanshah
1.06
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.76

Be'sat Kermanshah creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.91
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.58
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw
74%
Be'sat Kermanshah or Naft Masjed Soleyman
68%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
58%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
17%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
65%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
29%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
9%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
53%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
18%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.91 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
42%
level
32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
26%

Be'sat Kermanshah at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Be'sat Kermanshah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be'sat Kermanshah vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Be'sat Kermanshah beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 3, 2025.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Kermanshah.