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Be'sat Kermanshah vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
A. Zeraatkar 83'
10/9/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah36%
×Draw37%
Mes Kerman27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.81
Mes Kerman
0.67

Be'sat Kermanshah creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 102 away

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.91
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.58
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw
73%
Be'sat Kermanshah or Mes Kerman
63%
Draw or Mes Kerman
64%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
12%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
56%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
19%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
5%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
49%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
15%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
57%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.91 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.81

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
36%
level
37%
Mes Kerman scores more
27%

Be'sat Kermanshah at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Be'sat Kermanshah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
A. Zeraatkar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Be'sat Kermanshah 1–0 Mes Kerman

Be'sat Kermanshah beat Mes Kerman 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 9, 2024.

Goals: A. Zeraatkar (83').

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Kermanshah.