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Be Forward Wanderers vs Songwe Border United — Super League 2026

Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
10/29/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers83%
×Draw13%
Songwe Border United4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be Forward Wanderers
2.46
Songwe Border United
0.38

Be Forward Wanderers creates 547% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers
1.98
Songwe Border United
0.13

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers
0.62
Songwe Border United
2.93

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par
Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Songwe Border United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw
96%
Be Forward Wanderers or Songwe Border United
87%
Draw or Songwe Border United
17%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
60%
Songwe Border United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
91%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
70%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
44%
Songwe Border United 1+ goals
32%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
6%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
95%
Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 81 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.98 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.46

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more
83%
level
13%
Songwe Border United scores more
4%

Be Forward Wanderers at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 2–0 Songwe Border United

Be Forward Wanderers beat Songwe Border United 2-0 in Super League on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.