Be Forward Wanderers 3–1 Sable Farming

Be Forward Wanderers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Sable Farming

4/16/2022

Super League · Round 4Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers65%

×Draw23%

Sable Farming12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be Forward WanderersExpected goals in this matchSable Farming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.61

Be Forward Wanderers

1.75

Sable Farming

0.61

Be Forward Wanderers creates 187% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

1.98

creates per match

0.60

0.62

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers

1.98

Sable Farming

0.60

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers

0.62

Sable Farming

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Sable Farming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw

88%

Be Forward Wanderers or Sable Farming

77%

Draw or Sable Farming

35%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

38%

Sable Farming wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

83%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

52%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

25%

Sable Farming 1+ goals

46%

Sable Farming 2+ goals

13%

Sable Farming 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

84%

Sable Farming (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 81 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.98 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

65%

level

23%

Sable Farming scores more

12%

Be Forward Wanderers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff