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Be Forward Wanderers vs Nyasa Big Bullets — Super League 2026

Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Nyasa Big Bullets
Nyasa Big Bullets
M. Sulumba 87'
M. Gabeya 74'
S. Sanudi 36' (pen)
C. Idana 49'
P. Mwaungulu 31'
L. Nkhoma 26'
8/14/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers44%
×Draw28%
Nyasa Big Bullets27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be Forward Wanderers
1.29
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.95

Be Forward Wanderers creates 36% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 72 away

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers
2.00
Nyasa Big Bullets
1.26

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers
0.63
Nyasa Big Bullets
0.58

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par
Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Nyasa Big Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw
73%
Be Forward Wanderers or Nyasa Big Bullets
72%
Draw or Nyasa Big Bullets
56%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
20%
Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
72%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
37%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
14%
Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals
61%
Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals
25%
Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
62%
Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

Nyasa Big Bullets away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 2.00 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 1.26 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more
44%
level
28%
Nyasa Big Bullets scores more
27%

Be Forward Wanderers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
L. Nkhoma
31'
P. Mwaungulu
36'
S. SanudiPenalty
49'
C. Idana
74'
M. Gabeya
87'
M. Sulumba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 3–3 Nyasa Big Bullets

Be Forward Wanderers and Nyasa Big Bullets drew 3-3 in Super League on August 14, 2022.

Goals: L. Nkhoma (26'), P. Mwaungulu (31'), S. Sanudi (36' pen), C. Idana (49'), M. Gabeya (74'), M. Sulumba (87').

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.