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Be Forward Wanderers vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
4/7/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers54%
×Draw26%
Kamuzu Barracks20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be Forward Wanderers
1.53
Kamuzu Barracks
0.81

Be Forward Wanderers creates 89% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers
1.95
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers
0.63
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw
80%
Be Forward Wanderers or Kamuzu Barracks
74%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
46%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
28%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
78%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
20%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
56%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
19%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
73%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.63 · 82 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.95 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more
54%
level
26%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
20%

Be Forward Wanderers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 1–1 Kamuzu Barracks

Be Forward Wanderers and Kamuzu Barracks drew 1-1 in Super League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.