Be Forward Wanderers 3–0 Extreme: Result & Stats

Be Forward Wanderers

FT

3 – 0

Extreme

10/1/2023

Super League · Round 19Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers68%

×Draw23%

Extreme10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be Forward WanderersExpected goals in this matchExtreme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.45

Be Forward Wanderers

1.67

Extreme

0.45

Be Forward Wanderers creates 271% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

0.27

0.63

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers

1.95

Extreme

0.27

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers

0.63

Extreme

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Extreme+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Extreme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw

90%

Be Forward Wanderers or Extreme

77%

Draw or Extreme

32%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

39%

Extreme wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

81%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

50%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

23%

Extreme 1+ goals

36%

Extreme 2+ goals

8%

Extreme 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

88%

Extreme (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.63 · 82 matches

Extreme away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.95 + Extreme defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Extreme attack 0.27 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

68%

level

23%

Extreme scores more

10%

Be Forward Wanderers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 3–0 Extreme

Be Forward Wanderers beat Extreme 3-0 in Super League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.

Be Forward Wanderers vs Extreme — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 3–0 Extreme