Be Forward Wanderers 3–1 Dedza Dynamos

Be Forward Wanderers

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dedza Dynamos

6/1/2024

Super League · Round 7Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers64%

×Draw22%

Dedza Dynamos14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be Forward WanderersExpected goals in this matchDedza Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.71

Be Forward Wanderers

1.82

Dedza Dynamos

0.71

Be Forward Wanderers creates 156% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 65 away

1.95

creates per match

0.78

0.63

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers

1.95

Dedza Dynamos

0.78

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers

0.63

Dedza Dynamos

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Dedza Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw

86%

Be Forward Wanderers or Dedza Dynamos

78%

Draw or Dedza Dynamos

36%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

38%

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

84%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

54%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

27%

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

51%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

16%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

82%

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.63 · 82 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.95 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

64%

level

22%

Dedza Dynamos scores more

14%

Be Forward Wanderers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 3–1 Dedza Dynamos

Be Forward Wanderers beat Dedza Dynamos 3-1 in Super League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.

Be Forward Wanderers vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 3–1 Dedza Dynamos