Be Forward Wanderers 2–0 CIVO United

Be Forward Wanderers

FT

2 – 0

CIVO United

8/14/2021

Super League · Round 20Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers56%

×Draw25%

CIVO United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be Forward WanderersExpected goals in this matchCIVO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.81

Be Forward Wanderers

1.59

CIVO United

0.81

Be Forward Wanderers creates 96% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 73 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.63

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers

2.00

CIVO United

1.00

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers

0.63

CIVO United

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

CIVO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw

81%

Be Forward Wanderers or CIVO United

75%

Draw or CIVO United

44%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

30%

CIVO United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

80%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

47%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

21%

CIVO United 1+ goals

56%

CIVO United 2+ goals

19%

CIVO United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

75%

CIVO United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 2.00 + CIVO United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

CIVO United attack 1.00 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

56%

level

25%

CIVO United scores more

19%

Be Forward Wanderers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff