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Bełchatów vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Bełchatów
Bełchatów
FT
2 – 1
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
3/30/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bełchatów56%
×Draw21%
Pilica Białobrzegi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bełchatów
2.13
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.29

Bełchatów creates 65% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bełchatów
1.82
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Bełchatów
1.45
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw
77%
Bełchatów or Pilica Białobrzegi
79%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
44%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+
34%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals
88%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
63%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
35%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
72%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
37%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)
71%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bełchatów scores more
56%
level
21%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
23%

Bełchatów at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Bełchatów 2–1 Pilica Białobrzegi

Bełchatów beat Pilica Białobrzegi 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.