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Bełchatów vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Bełchatów
Bełchatów
CANC
16:00
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
4/9/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bełchatów44%
×Draw27%
Garbarnia Kraków29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bełchatów
1.39
Garbarnia Kraków
1.09

Bełchatów creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 68 away

creates per match

Bełchatów
1.30
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Bełchatów
0.90
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw
71%
Bełchatów or Garbarnia Kraków
73%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
56%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+
21%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals
75%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
40%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
16%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
66%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
30%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)
60%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.30 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Bełchatów defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bełchatów scores more
44%
level
27%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
29%

Bełchatów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bełchatów face Garbarnia Kraków (II Liga - East)

II Liga - East returns with Bełchatów hosting Garbarnia Kraków. Match starts April 9, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.