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Bdin vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Bdin
Bdin
CANC
00:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
4/5/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 18Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bdin41%
×Draw23%
Yantra 201936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
1.67
Yantra 2019
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bdin
2.33
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Bdin
0.96
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
64%
Bdin or Yantra 2019
77%
Draw or Yantra 2019
59%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
21%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
81%
Bdin 2+ goals
50%
Bdin 3+ goals
23%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
79%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
46%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
53%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bdin scores more
41%
level
23%
Yantra 2019 scores more
36%

Bdin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bdin face Yantra 2019 (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Bdin hosting Yantra 2019. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bdin host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.