Bdin 3–0 Parva atomna: Result & Stats

Bdin

FT

3 – 0

Parva atomna

11/12/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 15Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bdin71%

×Draw17%

Parva atomna12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BdinExpected goals in this matchParva atomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.91

Bdin

2.45

Parva atomna

0.91

Bdin creates 169% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 47 away

2.33

creates per match

0.85

0.96

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Bdin

2.33

Parva atomna

0.85

allows per match

Bdin

0.96

Parva atomna

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par

Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Parva atomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bdin or draw

88%

Bdin or Parva atomna

83%

Draw or Parva atomna

29%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+

48%

Parva atomna wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals

91%

Bdin 2+ goals

70%

Bdin 3+ goals

44%

Parva atomna 1+ goals

60%

Parva atomna 2+ goals

23%

Parva atomna 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)

85%

Parva atomna (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.45

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bdin scores more

71%

level

17%

Parva atomna scores more

12%

Bdin at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff