Bdin 1–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia II: Result & Stats

Bdin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

11/3/2023

Second League · Round 16Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bdin29%

×Draw29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BdinExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.18

Bdin

0.95

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.18

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

0.65

creates per match

1.35

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bdin

0.65

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.35

allows per match

Bdin

1.00

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bdin or draw

59%

Bdin or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

71%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

71%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+

11%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals

61%

Bdin 2+ goals

25%

Bdin 3+ goals

7%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

69%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

33%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)

42%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 0.65 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Bdin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bdin scores more

29%

level

29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

41%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff