Bdin 1–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: Result & Stats

Bdin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

12/4/2023

Second League · Round 19Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bdin36%

×Draw31%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BdinExpected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.97

Bdin

1.02

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

0.65

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bdin

0.65

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Bdin

1.00

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bdin or draw

67%

Bdin or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

69%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

64%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+

14%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals

64%

Bdin 2+ goals

27%

Bdin 3+ goals

8%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

62%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)

52%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 0.65 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Bdin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bdin scores more

36%

level

31%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

33%

Bdin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff