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Bdin vs Botev Lukovit — Third League - Northwest 2018

Bdin
Bdin
FT
1 – 0
Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
9/30/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 8Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Vidin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bdin66%
×Draw20%
Botev Lukovit14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
2.13
Botev Lukovit
0.88

Bdin creates 142% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bdin
2.33
Botev Lukovit
0.80

allows per match

Bdin
0.96
Botev Lukovit
1.93

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Botev Lukovit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
86%
Bdin or Botev Lukovit
80%
Draw or Botev Lukovit
34%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
42%
Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
88%
Bdin 2+ goals
63%
Bdin 3+ goals
35%
Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
59%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
22%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
82%
Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.13

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bdin scores more
66%
level
20%
Botev Lukovit scores more
14%

Bdin at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bdin vs Botev Lukovit

Bdin beat Botev Lukovit 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Vidin).