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BDF vs Wotton — Premier League 2019

BDF
BDF
FT
2 – 2
Wotton
Wotton
7/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BDF40%
×Draw21%
Wotton39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BDF
2.00
Wotton
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 44 away

creates per match

BDF
1.50
Wotton
1.80

allows per match

BDF
2.11
Wotton
2.50

finishing

BDF+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BDF ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

BDF or draw
61%
BDF or Wotton
79%
Draw or Wotton
60%

Winning margin

BDF wins by 2+
22%
Wotton wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

BDF 1+ goals
86%
BDF 2+ goals
59%
BDF 3+ goals
32%
Wotton 1+ goals
86%
Wotton 2+ goals
58%
Wotton 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

BDF (draw refunded)
51%
Wotton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BDF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BDF attack 1.50 + Wotton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Wotton attack 1.80 + BDF defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BDF scores more
40%
level
21%
Wotton scores more
39%

BDF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BDF 2 – 2 Wotton

BDF and Wotton drew 2-2 in Premier League on July 12, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.