BDF 2–2 Weymouth Wales: Result & Stats

BDF

FT

2 – 2

Weymouth Wales

5/17/2019

Premier League · FinalWildey Turf (Sir Garfield Sobers Complex) (Bridgetown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BDF15%

×Draw17%

Weymouth Wales68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BDFExpected goals in this matchWeymouth Wales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.58

BDF

1.13

Weymouth Wales

2.58

Weymouth Wales creates 128% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

1.50

creates per match

3.05

2.11

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

BDF

1.50

Weymouth Wales

3.05

allows per match

BDF

2.11

Weymouth Wales

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BDF+0.00on par

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BDF ↓

Weymouth Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

BDF or draw

32%

BDF or Weymouth Wales

83%

Draw or Weymouth Wales

85%

Winning margin

BDF wins by 2+

5%

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

BDF 1+ goals

68%

BDF 2+ goals

31%

BDF 3+ goals

11%

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

92%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

72%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

BDF (draw refunded)

18%

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BDF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BDF attack 1.50 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.13

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + BDF defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

BDF scores more

15%

level

17%

Weymouth Wales scores more

68%

Weymouth Wales at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff