BDF 2–1 Empire Club: Result & Stats

BDF

FT

2 – 1

Empire Club

7/5/2023

Premier League · Round 10Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BDF35%

×Draw22%

Empire Club42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BDFExpected goals in this matchEmpire Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.82

BDF

1.64

Empire Club

1.82

Empire Club creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

1.50

creates per match

1.54

2.11

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

BDF

1.50

Empire Club

1.54

allows per match

BDF

2.11

Empire Club

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BDF+0.00on par

Empire Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BDF ↓

Empire Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

BDF or draw

58%

BDF or Empire Club

78%

Draw or Empire Club

65%

Winning margin

BDF wins by 2+

17%

Empire Club wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

BDF 1+ goals

81%

BDF 2+ goals

49%

BDF 3+ goals

23%

Empire Club 1+ goals

84%

Empire Club 2+ goals

54%

Empire Club 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

BDF (draw refunded)

45%

Empire Club (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BDF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Empire Club away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BDF attack 1.50 + Empire Club defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Empire Club attack 1.54 + BDF defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BDF scores more

35%

level

22%

Empire Club scores more

42%

Empire Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Empire Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff