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BDF vs Deacons — Premier League 2019

BDF
BDF
FT
1 – 4
Deacons
Deacons
7/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BDF45%
×Draw21%
Deacons34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BDF
2.06
Deacons
1.79

BDF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 32 away

creates per match

BDF
1.50
Deacons
1.47

allows per match

BDF
2.11
Deacons
2.63

finishing

BDF+0.00on par
Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BDF ↓

Deacons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

BDF or draw
66%
BDF or Deacons
79%
Draw or Deacons
55%

Winning margin

BDF wins by 2+
25%
Deacons wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

BDF 1+ goals
87%
BDF 2+ goals
61%
BDF 3+ goals
34%
Deacons 1+ goals
83%
Deacons 2+ goals
53%
Deacons 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

BDF (draw refunded)
57%
Deacons (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BDF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BDF attack 1.50 + Deacons defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.06

Deacons attack 1.47 + BDF defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BDF scores more
45%
level
21%
Deacons scores more
34%

BDF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BDF 1 – 4 Deacons

Deacons beat BDF 4-1 in Premier League on July 26, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.