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BDF vs Brittons Hill — Premier League 2019

BDF
BDF
CANC
21:00
Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
4/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BDF31%
×Draw21%
Brittons Hill48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BDF
1.63
Brittons Hill
2.06

Brittons Hill creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 40 away

creates per match

BDF
1.50
Brittons Hill
2.02

allows per match

BDF
2.11
Brittons Hill
1.75

finishing

BDF+0.00on par
Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BDF ↓

Brittons Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

BDF or draw
52%
BDF or Brittons Hill
79%
Draw or Brittons Hill
69%

Winning margin

BDF wins by 2+
15%
Brittons Hill wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

BDF 1+ goals
80%
BDF 2+ goals
48%
BDF 3+ goals
22%
Brittons Hill 1+ goals
87%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
61%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

BDF (draw refunded)
39%
Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BDF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BDF attack 1.50 + Brittons Hill defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Brittons Hill attack 2.02 + BDF defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BDF scores more
31%
level
21%
Brittons Hill scores more
48%

Brittons Hill at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BDF vs Brittons Hill — Match Preview

BDF face Brittons Hill on April 11, 2020 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

BDF host Brittons Hill at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.